T-TRIID Final Report – Scheme Case Business Tool

Transport scheme development from scheme identification to the start of construction takes many years. A key part of that is forecasting the traffic and revenue for the Business Case (BC) using a transport model. The objective addressed by this project is to develop a Scheme Business Case Tool (SBCT) to considerably reduce the timsecale and costs of the transport modelling to weeks rather than years. This will also make it simpler, less risky and more likely that the right schemes will be identified and built, with consequent improvements to the local economy, social stability and people’s wellbeing.
The SBCT would be a website and cloud based system for developing the transport model and using it to produce the traffic, ridership, revenue and other outputs required for a scheme business case. Government officers, consultants, funding agencies and others would be able to go onto SBCT’s website, input their scheme and forecast the traffic, ridership and revenue for their scheme’s BC, much quicker and much cheaper than currently. It will provide the internet-based platform for holding transport data as a resource for the future so that the transport modeller can integrate it into his model more effectively and enabling it to be shared between transport models. It will tap directly in to use mobile phone network data (MND) and other sources of Big Data. It will provide on-line tutorials, help, guidance and facilities to help redress the modelling skills shortage in developing countries and support their local centres-of-excellence.
SBCT would be free for simple models such as for Outline Business Cases (OBCs) in developing countries, and for more complex models such as required for a Full Business Case (FBC), there may be a charge especially for data, but the charge would be much cheaper than conventional methods. It would be available for developed countries too with an element of cross subsidy from them. The implementation would seek partners with Mobile Network Data (MND) suppliers who would be paid for their data and these costs would be passed on to the data user. The implementation would seek partners from governments who could provide a financial contribution in return for consultancy support in building their transport models and doing BCs.
To test SBCT’s proof-of-concept and to find out if there is a market for it, this project designed the architecture of SBCT, developed a prototype (PSBCT) and market tested it with a limited number of potential end users from Gauteng Provincial Department of Roads and Transport (GPDRT), in the Gauteng Province, South Africa. The results showed that SBCT was technically possible, that it could fulfil an important market, that it will save time and money, simplify the modelling, reduce risk, give guidance and provide the robust scientific underpinning for Governments to make better informed decisions on the feasibility of transport projects. As a minimum SBCT would be taken up by a few Governments which in itself would be worthwhile but it is also possible that with the right design SBCT could well take-off as a resounding success across the developing and developed world.
The next steps required to develop the SBCT and make it available to public agencies, consultants, government departments, funding agencies and academics in low income countries, have been set out in this document in three phases. It would be available for the market at the end of phase 2 for the preparation of highway scheme business cases at a cost of about £350,000 including about £150,000 to cover the cost of MND. Two further phases would cover public transport and other more complex schemes for a combined cost of about £350,000 including about £150,000 for MND. After that it is anticipated that the SBCT would be self-financing including the MND costs which would be borne by the users.