Face mask mandates and risk compensation: an analysis of mobility data during the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh
Published: December 2022
Main topic: Crisis response, COVID-19
Study countrie(s): Bangladesh
Written by: Dr. Annesha Enam, Dr. Sheikh Mokhlesur Rahman, Dr. Zia Wadud
Study type: Peer reviewed paper
Introduction Concerns have been raised about the potential for risk compensation in the context of mask mandates for mitigating the spread of COVID-19. However, the debate about the presence or absence of risk compensation for universal mandatory mask-wearing rules especially in the context of COVID-19 is not settled yet.
Methods Mobility is used as a proxy for risky behaviour before and after the mask mandates. Two sets of regressions are estimated to decipher (any) risk-compensating effect of mask mandate in Bangladesh. These include:
– Intervention regression analysis of daily activities at six types of locations, using pre-mask-mandate and post-mandate data;
– multiple regression analysis of daily new COVID-19 cases on daily mobility (lagged) to establish mobility as a valid proxy.
Results
– Statistically, mobility increased at all five non-residential locations, while home stays decreased after the mask mandate was issued;
– daily mobility had a statistically significant association on daily new cases (with around 10 days of lag). Both significances were calculated at 95% confidence level.
Conclusion Community mobility had increased (and stay at home decreased) after the mandatory mask-wearing rule, and given mobility is associated with increases in new COVID-19 cases, there is evidence of risk compensation effect of the mask mandate at least partially in Bangladesh.
